September 10, 2026
Keshav Lall Maharjan
Vice president, Association of Regional Agricultural and Forestry Economics, Japan


Damage Status
The massive landslides that occurred in Nepal and China border were caused by the collapse of a huge glacier and bedrock on the northern slope of Langtang Lirung Mountain near the border, and it has been confirmed in the past two reports that these led to multiple destructive natural disasters that caused significant damage. However, the scale of the damage is truly enormous. We need to wait for the final reports from the government and related agencies to know the total actual damage, but here, I’m summarizing the damage situation as of September 8, the 13th day after the disaster (which is an important Memorial Day for the deceased in many ethnic groups and communities in Nepal).
The Nepal Red Cross estimates that about 100,000 people were affected by this major disaster. At one point, it was even said that the number could exceed 160,000. The basis for this estimate needs detailed verification, but according to a police acquaintance, there are several methods for estimating the number of disaster victims. They collect information from things like mobile phone signals, local election lists, municipality/ward resident lists, school teacher and student lists, officials, hospitals, hotels, restaurants, stores, and the owners or employees of various agencies and businesses, as well as members of local associations (like chambers of commerce, women’s groups, youth groups, martial arts organizations, religious groups, etc.). It seems that similar information was gathered this time and possibly consolidated by the Red Cross, and the number might increase. Clearly, all of these are approximations. During disasters, information gets mixed up, or there might be duplicates, so estimates like these generally tend to be higher. Once the information is organized and the actual number of victims is confirmed, the number could decrease. However, once the numbers are finalized, the count at the bottom might slightly increase toward the end of the rescue operations.
Given all this, the numbers of 100,000 and 160,000 mentioned above make me hope they will decrease significantly. If we think optimistically, I personally hope that the actual number of victims will end up below 50,000. There’s no basis for this figure; it’s just a personal wish for it to be as low as possible. Eventually, the number of victims will be officially confirmed.
So far, about 20,000 people have been rescued and returned home through the rescue operations, while about 5,000 people are unaccounted for and have been declared missing. This number is certain to change a time go. Among them, about 1,000 are foreigners from over 30 countries, including India, China, the U.S., Japan, South Korea, the U.K., Germany, Australia, and Singapore. I’ll touch on the high number of foreigners in the next report. Also, more than 1,500 bodies have already been found, around 100 of which have been identified and seem to have been claimed by their families. Currently, several hundred unidentified bodies have had DNA samples taken and are buried in forests like in Chitwan so that they can be handed over to families once identification is confirmed. Because there is a shortage of freezing facilities to preserve bodies and prevent decomposition, society, including the families, has remained silent about this from a public health perspective. Most of Nepali society follows Hinduism or Buddhism, and when someone passes away, it's believed that unless they are cremated at a designated location—at a ghat—and the proper memorial rituals are performed, the deceased cannot reach salvation, cannot cross the sacred river to go to the other world afterlife. It is said that if the soul wanders, it’s harmful for the world. So, while I’m somewhat surprised, I also feel unease. I can’t help but wonder what kind of impact this will have on society later. I just hope nothing bad comes of it. Some family members who gave up on finding the bodies have made dolls representing those who supposedly passed away on the 13th day, cremated them, and offered memorial rites.

Now, let’s think a bit about the number of missing people. Out of 5,000, six people, including two foreigners have been rescued from a power plant tunnel and from the upper floors of houses swept away by the disaster. But it’s hard to imagine that thousands more could be rescued like this. Personally, I hope that all the missing people are saved. Moreover, among the estimated 100,000 disaster victims, it’s unclear what kind of aid the roughly 80,000 people who haven’t been rescued are receiving. I’m concerned about their safety, whether they are at shelters or rescue centers. I don’t even want to imagine the worst, but places like Timure and Shabrubesi, where houses were almost completely destroyed, are on rough riverbeds, and 125 bodies have been found in Timure alone. Also, 115 tourists who stayed at a hotel the previous day and checked out before 8 a.m. are missing there. In Betrawati and Bidur as well, the accumulation of debris, soil and rocks has raised the riverbed by more than 10 meters, turning it into a riverbank or an island. In Betrawati Bazaar, one of these areas, 50 to 60 houses have collapsed or been washed away, and it is believed that 90% are gone. In that area alone, 125 bodies have been recovered.

Just to be clear, during the 2015 Nepal earthquake, the death toll across Nepal, India, China, and Bangladesh was 8,962, with 21,952 injured. We hope the deaths and injuries in this disaster won’t reach that level. Even in the similarly destructive disaster, earthquakes and floods are different. In the case of an earthquake, the damage happens where the earthquake struck, people are buried under collapsed houses or debris, or affected by fires and rescue operations are mainly centered there, allowing relatively concentrated action. Even if buried under debris, there are often gaps that can save people. On the other hand, in a flood, people may survive by being thrown to the riverbank or escaping to the upper floors of houses, but if swept away, they may ingest water or get injured by rocks, shortening the time they can survive and lowering survival rates. This time as well, over 25 bodies from northern Rasuwa and Nuwakot were recovered from the Gandak River in the Betia region of India. In the southern Nepali towns of Chitwan and Nawalparasi, hundreds of bodies have also been retrieved from the Narayani River. In the Newar community, who mainly live in the Kathmandu Valley, the old saying “Don’t play with fire or water” is easy to vividly imagine. Of course, disasters aren’t a game, but this lesson shows that we should stay away from places where fire or water could pose a danger, including constructing infrastructures, industries, settlements, schools, hospitals and other livelihood facilities. Next, I’ll summarize why the damage reached an unimaginably huge scale.